Mexico and the United States Against Organized Crime: Collaboration or Imminent Crisis?
The tense situation between Mexico and the United States against organized crime has generated a series of political, economic, and social threats that could have devastating consequences for both nations. Since Donald Trump took office as U.S. president, his administration has pressured Mexico with threats of tariffs, the designation of cartels as terrorist organizations, and the possibility of military intervention to combat these groups.
Meanwhile, the Mexican government has made decisions that have weakened its own judicial system, reduced investment in education and healthcare, and limited the country’s ability to address the security crisis.
If both countries fail to reach immediate collaboration agreements, the economic, social, and political repercussions could destabilize the region, directly impacting trade, foreign investment, and public safety.
Organized Crime: A Shared Problem with Global Consequences
Drug trafficking and organized crime are not problems exclusive to Mexico; their primary root lies in the persistent demand for drugs in multiple countries, including the United States, which sustains a market worth more than $150 billion per year. As long as there are consumers, cartels will find ways to operate, adapting to new strategies and using corruption and violence to maintain their power.
According to DEA data, over 90% of the heroin entering the U.S. comes from Mexico, and fentanyl trafficking has increased by more than 200% in the last five years. In response, the Trump administration threatened to close the border, impose tariffs on Mexican products, and classify cartels as terrorist organizations, which could open the door to military operations on Mexican soil.
What Would Happen if the U.S. Decided to Intervene Militarily in Mexico?
A U.S. military intervention in Mexico would have devastating consequences on multiple fronts:
1. Diplomatic Crisis and Trade Disruption
- Mexico is the top trade partner of the U.S., with bilateral trade exceeding $800 billion annually.
- Tariffs or sanctions would affect key industries such as automotive, technology, and manufacturing, potentially costing hundreds of thousands of jobs in both countries and resulting in over $100 billion in annual losses.
- Agricultural sectors in the U.S. would also suffer, as Mexico is its largest labor supplier and top buyer of products such as corn and pork, with imports exceeding $30 billion per year.
2. Increase in Violence and Possible Asymmetric Warfare
- Cartels would not disappear but rather retaliate with violent attacks in Mexico and possibly in the U.S., similar to the drug wars of the 2000s.
- Mexico could become a battlefield comparable to Afghanistan or Iraq, with criminal groups reorganizing over many years into more decentralized structures.
3. Migration Crisis
- Violence and economic instability would generate mass migration toward the U.S., overwhelming border states like Texas and California, leading to well-known consequences such as mistreatment and deportations.
- It is estimated that over 1.5 million Mexicans could attempt to cross the border in the event of an escalation of violence.
Mexico’s Role: Missteps That Exacerbate the Crisis
Despite external pressure, the Mexican government has made decisions that have weakened its ability to confront organized crime and improve the quality of life for its citizens.
1. Dismantling of the Judicial System
- The proposal to eliminate autonomous institutions has reduced the capacity to administer justice, favoring impunity.
- Currently, more than 94% of crimes in Mexico go unpunished, providing cartels with greater room to operate.
2. Reduced Investment in Education and Healthcare
- Budget cuts in education have left millions of young people without access to development opportunities, increasing the risk of recruitment by organized crime.
- The dismantling of public healthcare programs and the crisis in the healthcare system have negatively impacted the quality of life for millions of Mexicans, reducing workforce productivity.
3. Militarization Without Results
- Since 2006, Mexico has deployed its armed forces to combat drug trafficking, but violence levels have increased instead of decreasing.
- According to INEGI, 2023 was one of the most violent years in Mexico’s history, with over 42,000 homicides recorded. According to Statista, more than 43,000 homicides were reported in Mexico in 2024, representing an increase of 2.6% compared to the previous year.
Is There Hope? Strategies for a Viable Agreement
Instead of opting for military intervention or economic sanctions, Mexico and the U.S. should prioritize comprehensive strategies that address the root causes of the problem:
Strengthening the Rule of Law
- Reforming the judicial system to ensure criminals are effectively prosecuted.
- Investing in intelligence technology to track criminal networks and curb money laundering.
Reducing Drug Demand in the U.S.
- Implementing rehabilitation programs and addiction prevention campaigns in the U.S.
- Regulating certain drugs to reduce black-market demand and weaken cartel influence.
Bilateral Security Cooperation
- Instead of a military intervention, the U.S. could support Mexico with advanced technology to track criminal networks and curb arms trafficking.
- Increased collaboration on border security without disrupting trade or labor mobility.
Investment in Education and Economic Development
- Creating educational programs and job opportunities for at-risk youth to prevent cartel recruitment.
- Developing infrastructure in marginalized areas to reduce dependence on illegal economies.
Conclusion: Collaboration or Crisis?
Mexico and the U.S. are at a turning point. If both countries fail to find immediate and effective solutions to combat organized crime together, the consequences will be devastating: loss of lives, economic collapse, and an unprecedented migration crisis.
However, there is still time to change course. With strategies focused on strengthening institutions, reducing drug demand, and increasing investment in education and security, it is possible to curb the expansion of organized crime without resorting to extreme measures like military intervention. The security and development of both nations depend on sound decisions at this critical moment.